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Aflac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $31.76 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-10-01), Aflac's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $31.76.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history with more than 5 years. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, the data will not be stored into our database.

Aflac's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Aflac is -76.95%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Aflac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AFL' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.86   Med: 3.5   Max: 16.12
Current: 1.8

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Aflac was 16.12. The lowest was 0.86. And the median was 3.50.

AFL's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
67.27% of 55 companies
in the Insurance industry
Industry Median: 1.28 vs AFL: 1.80

Aflac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Aflac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Aflac Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 29.43 40.69 35.97

Aflac Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 33.25 34.61 35.97 30.30 31.83

Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Life subindustry, Aflac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Aflac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Aflac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aflac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Aflac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. H-Model formula is applied here, in which dividends are used in the calculation with two stage of dividend growth. The calculation for H-Model DDM valuation shows as below.

The H-model formula consists of two parts. The first component of the equation adds the value from the high growth rate period, which is called growth stage. The second component of the formula considers the value of the stock based on the long-term growth rate, which is called the terminal stage. It ignores the high growth rate period. In the growth stage, the dividends of company grows at a faster rate. As it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.30%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average dividend growth rate in the past 5 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 9.30% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 9.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: dividends per share = $1.460.
GuruFocus DCF calculator applies H-Model to the calculation here, using dividends per share TTM as the default.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Aflac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) = Dividends per Share *( g1 - g2 ) / ( d - g2 ) * y1 / 2
+ Dividends per Share * ( 1 + g2 ) / ( d - g2 )
= 1.460 * (0.093 - 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04) * 10 / 2
+ 1.460 * ( 1 + 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04)
= 31.76

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (31.76 - 56.20) / 31.76
= -76.95 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Aflac  (NYSE:AFL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 5 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Aflac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Aflac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Aflac Business Description

Aflac logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Aflac Inc (NYSE:AFL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Address
1932 Wynnton Road, Columbus, GA, USA, 31999
Aflac Inc offers supplemental health insurance and life insurance in the two largest insurance markets in the world, the U.S. and Japan. In addition to its cancer policies, the company has broadened its product offerings to include accidents, disability, and long-term-care insurance. It markets its products through independent distributors, selling most of its policies directly to consumers at their places of work.
Executives
Collins Arthur Reginald director 3911 LORCOM LANE ARLINGTON VA 22207
Mori Nobuchika director 1932 WYNNTON ROAD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Kiser Georgette D. director 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Beaver Steven Kent officer: SVP, CFO, Aflac US 1932 WYNNTON ROAD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Williams Richard Jr officer: Executive V.P. 1932 WYNNTON RD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Riggieri Albert officer: SVP, Corporate Actuary 1932 WYNNTON RD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Rohrer Katherine director 1932 WYNNTON RD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Koide Masatoshi officer: Deputy President, Aflac Japan 1932 WYNNTON RD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Broden Max officer: Senior Vice President 1932 WYNNTON RD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Lloyd Karole director 1932 WYNNTON ROAD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Fukuzawa Toshihiko director 1932 WYNNTON RD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Daniels James Todd officer: Sr. Vice President 1932 WYNNTON ROAD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Crawford Frederick John officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer AFLAC INCORPORATED COLUMBUS GA 31999
Moskowitz Joseph L director 1932 WYNNTON ROAD COLUMBUS GA 31999
Kenny Thomas J director FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC 901 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD 6TH FLOOR SAN MATEO CA 94404

Aflac Headlines

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