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# Aflac (AFL) Beneish M-Score : -2.15 (As of May. 23, 2024)

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## What is Aflac Beneish M-Score?

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.15 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Aflac's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

AFL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.9   Med: -2.6   Max: -2.15
Current: -2.15

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aflac was -2.15. The lowest was -2.90. And the median was -2.60.

## Aflac Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aflac for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

 M = -4.84 + 0.92 * DSRI + 0.528 * GMI + 0.404 * AQI + 0.892 * SGI + 0.115 * DEPI = -4.84 + 0.92 * 1.3323 + 0.528 * 1 + 0.404 * 1.0005 + 0.892 * 0.9838 + 0.115 * 1 - 0.172 * SGAI + 4.679 * TATA - 0.327 * LVGI - 0.172 * 1 + 4.679 * 0.010195 - 0.327 * 1.0287 = -2.15

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

 This Year (Dec23) TTM: Last Year (Dec22) TTM: Total Receivables was \$848 Mil. Revenue was \$18,838 Mil. Gross Profit was \$18,838 Mil. Total Current Assets was \$0 Mil. Total Assets was \$126,724 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was \$445 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was \$0 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was \$0 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was \$0 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was \$7,364 Mil. Net Income was \$4,659 Mil. Gross Profit was \$177 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was \$3,190 Mil. Total Receivables was \$647 Mil. Revenue was \$19,149 Mil. Gross Profit was \$19,149 Mil. Total Current Assets was \$0 Mil. Total Assets was \$131,738 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was \$530 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was \$0 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was \$0 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was \$0 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was \$7,442 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

 DSRI = (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) = (848 / 18838) / (647 / 19149) = 0.045015 / 0.033788 = 1.3323

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

 GMI = GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t = (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) = (19149 / 19149) / (18838 / 18838) = 1 / 1 = 1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

 AQI = (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) = (1 - (0 + 445) / 126724) / (1 - (0 + 530) / 131738) = 0.996488 / 0.995977 = 1.0005

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

 SGI = Sales_t / Sales_t-1 = Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1 = 18838 / 19149 = 0.9838

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

 DEPI = (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) = (0 / (0 + 530)) / (0 / (0 + 445)) = 0 / 0 = 1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

 SGAI = (SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) = (0 / 18838) / (0 / 19149) = 0 / 0 = 1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

 LVGI = ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) = ((7364 + 0) / 126724) / ((7442 + 0) / 131738) = 0.058111 / 0.056491 = 1.0287

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

 TATA = (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t = (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t = (4659 - 177 - 3190) / 126724 = 0.010195

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aflac has a M-score of -2.15 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

## Aflac Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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