Headwaters Co (TSE:4011) Beneish M-Score: -1.42 (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


TSE:4011 Headwaters Co Ltd TSE:4011
76 GF Score
Price 円1,956.00
GF Value 円8,007.98
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 5 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Headwaters Co Beneish M-Score?

Headwaters Co TSE:4011 -3.26% 76 Beneish M-Score is -1.42 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:4011 with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of 円8,007.98 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 2,634 Software companies, Headwaters Co ranks worse than 85.88% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.42 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Headwaters Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:4011' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.4   Med: -1.69   Max: 0.39
Current: -1.42

During the past 8 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Headwaters Co was 0.39. The lowest was -2.40. And the median was -1.69.


Headwaters Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Headwaters Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Headwaters Co Beneish M-Score Chart

Headwaters Co Annual Data
Trend Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial -2.40 -1.85 -2.37 0.39 -1.42

Headwaters Co Quarterly Data
Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.42 0.00

TSE:4011 vs CRM, SHOP, UBER: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Software - Application subindustry, Headwaters Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Headwaters Co Beneish M-Score vs Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Headwaters Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Headwaters Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.


TSE:4011
76GF Score
Headwaters Co Ltd TSE:4011
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Headwaters Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Headwaters Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0967+0.528 * 0.9605+0.404 * 3.4647+0.892 * 1.3421+0.115 * 0.7416
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * 0.025032-0.327 * 2.2096
=-1.42

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円828 Mil.
Revenue was 円3,900 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円1,733 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円1,581 Mil.
Total Assets was 円3,850 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円42 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円36 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円2,494 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円0 Mil.
Net Income was 円58 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 円-39 Mil.
Total Receivables was 円563 Mil.
Revenue was 円2,906 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円1,240 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円1,460 Mil.
Total Assets was 円1,800 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円40 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円20 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円528 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円0 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(828.47 / 3900.04) / (562.87 / 2905.981)
=0.212426 / 0.193694
=1.0967

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1240.073 / 2905.981) / (1732.735 / 3900.04)
=0.426731 / 0.444286
=0.9605

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1580.604 + 42.49) / 3849.872) / (1 - (1459.812 + 40.018) / 1800.388)
=0.578403 / 0.166941
=3.4647

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=3900.04 / 2905.981
=1.3421

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(20.442 / (20.442 + 40.018)) / (35.605 / (35.605 + 42.49))
=0.338108 / 0.455919
=0.7416

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 3900.04) / (0 / 2905.981)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 2493.782) / 3849.872) / ((0 + 527.793) / 1800.388)
=0.647757 / 0.293155
=2.2096

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(57.656 - 0 - -38.713) / 3849.872
=0.025032

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Headwaters Co has a M-score of -1.42 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -1.42 mean?
Headwaters Co (TSE:4011) has a Beneish M-Score of -1.42 as of Jun. 27, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Headwaters Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Headwaters Co ranks #2262 out of 2634 companies in the Software industry, placing it in the top 85.9%.
Is Headwaters Co's Beneish M-Score too high?
Headwaters Co's current Beneish M-Score is -1.42. Based on the distribution chart, Headwaters Co ranks #2262 out of 2634 companies in the Software industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Headwaters Co has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Headwaters Co's Beneish M-Score compare to CRM and SHOP?
According to the Software industry distribution chart, Headwaters Co ranks #2262 out of 2634 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Headwaters Co in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Software company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Software industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Headwaters Co and its competitors. Headwaters Co's current Beneish M-Score is -1.42. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Headwaters Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Headwaters Co (TSE:4011) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is 円8,007.98, compared to a current price of 円1,956.00 — trading 75.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -1.42. Headwaters Co's overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Headwaters Co (TSE:4011), the current Beneish M-Score is -1.42 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Headwaters Co (TSE:4011) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Headwaters Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of 円1,956.00 is trading 75.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of 円8,007.98. GuruFocus considers Headwaters Co to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for TSE:4011:

  • Beneish M-Score: -1.42
  • GF Value™: 円8,007.98 vs. price of 円1,956.00 (75.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 76/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:4011 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Headwaters Co Business Description

Address 6-5-1 Nishi-Shinjuku, Shinjuku-ku, 4th floor, Shinjuku Island Tower, Tokyo, JPN, 163-1304
Headwaters Co Ltd is engaged in the planning and development of artificial intelligence (AI) applications. It develops AI-related businesses such as AI platform operation, AI application development, robot application development, and cloud service operation. The group has a single segment, the AI solutions business.
76GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:4011

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円1,956.00
Price
円8,007.98
GF Value