What is Autoscope Technologies Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Autoscope Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Autoscope Technologies Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1115 Hennepin Avenue, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55403
Autoscope Technologies Corp is engaged in improving safety and efficiency for cities and highways by developing and delivering above-ground detection technology, applications, and solutions. It provides Intelligent Transportation Systems professionals precise and accurate information, including real-time reaction capabilities and in-depth analytics to make confident and proactive decisions.
Executives
| Joseph Patrick Daly |
director |
497 CIRCLE FREEWAY, CINCINNATI OH 45246 |
| Brian Vanderbosch |
director |
1600 UNIVERSITY AVE W, SUITE 400, SAINT PAUL MN 55104 |
| James W Bracke |
director |
15411 MASON POINTE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347 |
| Ezekiel Kruglick |
director |
13842 DEERGRASS CT, POWAY CA 92064 |
| Frank Glenn Hallowell |
officer: CFO |
500 SPRUCE TREE CENTRE,, 1600 UNIVERSITY AVENUE WEST, ST. PAUL MN 55104 |
| Theodore Thomas Johnson |
officer: Interim CFO |
500 SPRUCE TREE, 1600 UNIVERSITY AVE. W, ST. PAUL MN 55104 |
| Ab Value Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
208 LENOX AVE, #409, WESTFIELD NJ 07090 |
| Todd Christoper Slawson |
officer: Interim CFO |
3345 YOSEMITE AVENUE SOUTH, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416 |
| Richard A. Ehrich |
officer: Interim CFO |
500 SPRUCE TREE CENTRE, 1600 UNIVERSITY AVE W., ST. PAUL MN 55104 |
| Geoffrey Clark Davis |
director |
8828 CRICK ALY, ORLANDO FL 32827 |
| Chad Stelzig |
officer: Interim President, Interim CEO |
400 SPRUCE TREE CENTRE, 1600 UNIVERSITY AVE W., ST. PAUL MN 55104 |
| Andrew Berger |
director, 10 percent owner |
84 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD NJ 07090 |
| Marxe Austin W & Greenhouse David M |
10 percent owner |
C/O SPECIAL SITUATIONS FUNDS, 527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Kris B Tufto |
director |
2660 CHRISTIAN COURT, CHASKA MN 55318 |
| Melissa B Fisher |
director |
188 E. 64TH STREET, APT. 604, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
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