ANNX (Annexon) Predictability Rank

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What is Annexon Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Annexon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Annexon Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Annexon Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Annexon Inc (NAS:ANNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1400 Sierra Point Parkway, Suite 200, Building C, Brisbane, CA, USA, 94005

Website

https://www.annexonbio.com

Annexon Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing a pipeline of novel therapies for patients with classical complement-mediated disorders of the body, brain, and eye. Its pipeline is based on its platform technology addressing well-researched classical complement-mediated autoimmune and neurodegenerative disease processes, both of which are triggered by aberrant activation of C1q. Its pipeline of product candidates is designed to block the activity of C1q and the entire classical complement pathway in a broad set of complement-mediated diseases. Its product candidates are ANX005, for autoimmune & neurodegenerative disorders; ANX007, for neurodegenerative ophthalmic disorders; ANX1502 for Oral small molecule; and ANX009, for systemic autoimmune diseases.

Executives

Dean Richard Artis	officer: EVP & Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 1400 SIERRA PT PKWY, BLDG C, 2ND FLOOR, BRISBANE CA 94005
Jennifer Lew	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	2929 SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 100, BERKELEY CA 94710
Ted Yednock	officer: EVP & Chief Innovation Officer	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 180 KIMBALL WAY, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jamie Dananberg	officer: Chief Medical Officer	3280 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Michael Overdorf	officer: EVP & Chief Business Officer	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 180 KIMBALL WAY, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Douglas Love	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 180 KIMBALL WAY, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
William H. Carson	director	C/O PREVAIL THERAPEUTICS INC., 430 EAST 29TH STREET, SUITE 1520, NEW YORK NY 10016
Muneer A Satter	director	C/O SATTER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC, 676 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60611
Bain Capital Life Sciences Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bettina M. Cockroft	director	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 180 KIMBALL WAY, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Larry Mattheakis	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 180 KIMBALL WAY, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
William D. Waddill	director	C/O CALITHERA BIOSCIENCES, 343 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 200, SO. SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Sanjay Keswani	officer: EVP & Chief Medical Officer	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 180 KIMBALL WAY, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Clarus Lifesciences Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1210, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
James E Flynn	10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017