Auburn National Bancorp (Auburn National Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Auburn National Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Auburn National Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Auburn National Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Auburn National Bancorp (Auburn National Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Auburn National Bancorp Inc (NAS:AUBN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

132 N. Gay Street, Auburn, AL, USA, 36830

Website

https://www.auburnbank.com

Auburn National Bancorp Inc operates as a bank holding company, which offers checking, savings, transaction deposit accounts and certificates of deposit, and is an active residential mortgage lender in its primary service area. The Bank's primary service area includes the cities of Auburn and Opelika, Alabama and nearby surrounding areas in East Alabama, primarily in Lee County. The Bank also offers commercial, financial, agricultural, real estate construction and consumer loan products and other financial services. The Bank also provides automated teller machine (ATM) services in East Alabama and operates ATM machines. The Bank offers Visa Checkcards, which are debit cards. The Bank offers online banking, bill payment and other electronic banking services through its Internet website.

Executives

David E Housel	director	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830
Shannon O'donnell	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT	2032 ST. PATRICK COURT, AUBURN AL 36830
J Tutt Barrett	director	P. O. BOX 49, OPELIKA AL 36803
Ham William F Jr	director	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830
David A Hedges	officer: Controller	1832 COOPER'S POND ROAD, AUBURN AL 36830
Terry W Andrus	director	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830
Wright Emil F Jr	director, 10 percent owner	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830
Lauretta Jenkins Cooper	director	1520 DUNBAR STREET, AUBURN AL 36830
Terrell E Bishop	officer: Senior Vice President	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830
Jerome B Siegel	officer: Senior Vice President	616 LOCKWOOD STREET, AUBURN AL 36830
Smith Charles Edward Jr	officer: Senior Vice President	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830
William Thomas Johnson	officer: Senior Vice President	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830
Samuel Mark Bridges	officer: Senior Vice President	P. O. BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36831-3110
Pamela Meigs Fuller	officer: Vice President	P. O. BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36831
Spencer Edward L Jr	10 percent owner	100 NORTH GAY STREET, PO BOX 3110, AUBURN AL 36830