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Broadcom (Broadcom) Predictability Rank

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What is Broadcom Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Broadcom Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Broadcom Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Broadcom (Broadcom) Business Description

3421 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94304
Broadcom is the sixth-largest semiconductor company globally and has expanded into various software businesses, with over $30 billion in annual revenue. It sells 17 core semiconductor product lines across wireless, networking, broadband, storage, and industrial markets. It is primarily a fabless designer but holds some manufacturing in-house, like for its best-of-breed FBAR filters that sell into the Apple iPhone. In software, it sells virtualization, infrastructure, and security software to large enterprises, financial institutions, and governments.Broadcom is the product of consolidation. Its businesses are an amalgamation of former companies like legacy Broadcom and Avago Technologies in chips, as well as Brocade, CA Technologies, and Symantec in software.
Kirsten M. Spears officer: Principal Accounting Officer 1320 RIDDER PARK, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Hock E Tan director, officer: President and CEO BROADCOM INC., 1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Eddy W Hartenstein director
Mark David Brazeal officer: Chief Legal Officer 1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Charlie B Kawwas officer: SVP & Chief Sales Officer C/O AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES U.S. INC., 350 WEST TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Justine Lien director 1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Check Kian Low director 1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Raul J Fernandez director 11600 SUNRISE VALLEY DR, RESTON VA 20191
Gayla J Delly director 3000 TECHNOLOGY DR, ANGLETON TX 77515
Diane M Bryant director 2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Thomas H. Krause officer: Chief Financial Officer 1320 RIDDER PARK, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Henry Samueli director, officer: Chief Technical Officer 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617-3038
Bryan Ingram officer: SVP & GM, Wireless Semicon Div C/O AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED, 350 WEST TRIMBLE ROAD, BLDG. 90, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Donald Macleod director

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