BBW (Build-A-Bear Workshop) Predictability Rank

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What is Build-A-Bear Workshop Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Build-A-Bear Workshop Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Build-A-Bear Workshop Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (NYSE:BBW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FPW:Germany FPW:Germany

Address

415 South 18th Street, St. Louis, MO, USA, 63103

Website

https://ir.buildabear.com

Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc is a U.S.-based specialty retailer of customized stuffed animals and related products. The company operates through three segments. Its Direct-to-consumer segment with key revenue, includes the operating activities of corporately-managed locations and other retail delivery operations in the U.S., Canada, China, Denmark, Ireland, and the U.K., including the company's e-commerce sites and temporary stores. The international franchising segment includes the licensing activities of the company's franchise agreements with store locations in Europe, Asia, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa. The commercial segment includes the transactions with other businesses, mainly comprised of licensing the intellectual properties for third-party use and wholesale activities.

Executives

George Carrara	director	C/O LIZ CLAIBORNE, INC., 1441 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10018
Sharon Price John	director, officer: CEO & Chief Pres. Bear	1954 INNERBELT BUSINESS CTR. DR., ST. LOUIS MO 63017
Eric R Fencl	officer: Chief Bearister, Gen. Counsel	BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP, INC., 1954 INNERBELT BUSINESS CENTER DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63114
Vojin Todorovic	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP, INC., 1954 INNERBELT BUSINESS CENTER DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63114
J. Christopher Hurt	officer: Chief Operations Officer	1954 INNERBELT BUSINESS CTR. DR., ST. LOUIS MO 63114
Jennifer Kretchmar	officer: Ch. Prod. Off. and Innov. Bear	1954 INNERBELT BUSINESS CENTER DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63114
Dixon Robert L Jr	director	120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Maxine Clark	officer: CEBear & Chairman of the Board	330 W. 34TH STREET, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Cannell Capital Llc	10 percent owner	245 MERIWETHER CIRCLE, ALTA WY 83414
Lesli Rotenberg	director	415 SOUTH 18TH STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Narayan Raghu Iyengar	director	415 SOUTH 18TH STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Craig Leavitt	director	2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
David Kanen	director	6429 NW 65TH WAY, PARKLAND FL 33067
Philotimo Fund, Lp	other: See Footnote 1	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076
Kanen Wealth Management Llc	other: See Footnote 1	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076