BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (NYSE:BJ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8BJ:Germany

Address

350 Campus Drive, Marlborough, MA, USA, 01752

Website

https://www.bjs.com

BJ's Wholesale serves as one of the few warehouse club chains in the United States. Its more than 240 warehouses are primarily located along the East Coast, most prominently in the New England area. Similar to its warehouse club peers, BJ's charges annual membership fees and keeps costs down by operating a "no-frills" store environment. The company limits the use of distribution centers where possible and stores inventory on pallets directly on the sales floor, often in bulk quantities. The company also offers a limited assortment of 7,000 stock-keeping units at its warehouses to achieve greater procurement scale on select items. About 80% of BJ's net sales come from grocery items and general merchandise, with the remaining 20% coming from gasoline and other ancillary services.

Executives

Robert Allan Steele	director	1 PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Joseph Mcgrail	officer: SVP, Controller	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Robert W. Eddy	officer: EVP, Chief Fin. & Admin Off.	350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
William C. Werner	officer: SVP, Strat. Planning & Anlys.	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Steven L Ortega	director	C/O L CATTERTON, 599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jeff Desroches	officer: EVP, Club Operations Officer	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Graham Luce	officer: SVP, Secretary	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Monica Schwartz	officer: SVP, Chief Digital Officer	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Christopher J Baldwin	director, officer: President & CEO	THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Paul Cichocki	officer: EVP, Mbmshp, Analyt/Bus Trnsfm	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Laura L. Felice	officer: SVP, Controller	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Anjana Harve	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Cathy Marie Robinson	director	C/O MICHAEL KORS (USA), INC., 11 WEST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Scott Kessler	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Kenneth M. Parent	director	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752