Capital City Bank Group (Capital City Bank Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Capital City Bank Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Capital City Bank Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Capital City Bank Group (Capital City Bank Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Capital City Bank Group Inc (NAS:CCBG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BK3:Germany

Address

217 North Monroe Street, Tallahassee, FL, USA, 32301

Website

https://www.ccbg.com

Capital City Bank Group Inc is a United States-based group engaged in Banking services, Trust and asset management services, and Brokerage services. The company offers retail and commercial banking business in the form of traditional deposit and credit services, asset management, trust, mortgage banking, merchant services, bank cards, data processing, and securities brokerage services among others through its banking offices in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.

Executives

Criser Marshall M Iii	director	217 NORTH MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Laura L Johnson	director	217 NORTH MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Bonnie Davenport	director	217 MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Jep Larkin	officer: EVP & CFO	217 N MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Thomas A Barron	director, officer: Treasurer	PO BOX 900, TALLAHASSEE FL 32302
William F Butler	director	217 N. MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Kimberly Crowell	director	217 N MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Ashbel C Williams	director	217 N. MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Allan G Bense	director	1405 W BEACH DRIVE, PANAMA CITY FL 32401
William E Grant	director	217 NORTH MONROE STREET, TALLAHASSEE FL 32301
Stan W Connally	director	241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD., ATLANTA GA 30308
Sample John G Jr	director
Robert Antoine	director	8234 ASHWORTH COURT, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
E Drew Mitchell	10 percent owner	1110 CONSERVANCY DRIVE, TALLAHASSEE FL 32312
Douglas Williams Smith	10 percent owner	3042 HAWKS GLEN, TALLAHASSEE FL 32312