What is CSP Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CSP Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CSP Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
175 Cabot Street, Suite 210, Lowell, MA, USA, 01854
CSP Inc along with its subsidiaries develops and markets IT integration solutions, security products, managed IT services, cloud services, purpose-built network adapters, and high-performance cluster computer systems. The firm operates in two segments namely Technology Solutions, where the company focus on value-added reseller integrated solutions including third-party hardware, software, and technical computer-related consulting, and High-Performance Products segments, where the company design, manufacture and deliver products and services to customers that require specialized cyber security services, networking and signal processing. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Technology Solutions segment. Geographically, the company generates its maximum revenue from the Americas.
Executives
| C Shelton James |
director |
GROUP LONG DISTANCE INC, 1451 W CYPRESS CREEK RD STE 200, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
| Joseph R Nerges |
10 percent owner |
1726 BUNDY ST, SCRANTON PA 18508 |
| Gary Southwell |
officer: VP and GM |
175 CABOT STREET, SUITE 210, LOWELL MA 01854 |
| Mike Newbanks |
officer: VP Finance & CAO |
1182 E NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33442 |
| Gary W Levine |
officer: CFO |
215 BUNKER HILL ST., CHARLESTOWN MA 02129 |
| Victor Dellovo |
officer: President and CEO |
1182 EAST NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33442-8126 |
| Ismail Azeri |
director |
175 CABOT STREET, SUITE 210, LOWELL MA 01854 |
| John M Leydon |
officer: VP Finance Chief Acct Officer |
2 BECK STREET, NEWBURYPORT MA 01950 |
| Blackmon Raymond Charles Jr |
director |
155 VIOLET PLACE, EUFAULA AL 36027 |
| Marilyn T Smith |
director |
10349 MAIN STREET, FAIRFAX VA 22030 |
| Robert E Bunnett |
director |
733 MEDITERRANEAN LANE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065 |
| Julian Demora |
other: Investor |
P.O.BOX 220139, HOLLYWOOD FL 33022 |
| Christopher Hall |
director, 10 percent owner |
671 NORTHEAST 105TH ST, MIAMI SHORES FL 33138 |
| Robert Michael Williams |
director |
P.O. 296, BREWSTER MA 02631 |
| Robert A Stellato |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
43 MANNING ROAD, BILLERICA MA 01821 |
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