What is Cavco Industries Predictability Rank?
4 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cavco Industries Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cavco Industries (Cavco Industries) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3636 North Central Avenue, Suite 1200, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85012
Cavco Industries Inc designs and produces factory-built homes under the Cavco Homes, Fleetwood Homes, and Palm Harbor Homes brands. It also produces modular homes, park model homes, and vacation cabins, as well as commercial structures, among others. The company operates principally in two segments: Factory-built housing, which includes wholesale and retail systems-built housing operations and financial services, which includes manufactured housing consumer finance and insurance. Cavco received most of its revenues from the Factory-built housing segment.
Executives
| Steven K. Like |
officer: Senior Vice President |
1001 N. CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 800, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Steven G Bunger |
director |
|
| Jack S Brandom |
officer: President, Financial Services |
C/O 3636 N. CENTRAL AVE., SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Gavin Ryan |
officer: See remarks |
3636 N. CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| David A. Greenblatt |
director |
4218 BEECHWOOD LANE, DALLAS TX 75220-1908 |
| Rogers Colleen J |
officer: SVP, Marketing and Comm. |
C/O 3636 N. CENTRAL AVE., SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Allison Aden |
officer: EVP and CFO |
C/O PROFIT RECOVERY GROUP INTERNATIONAL, 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30339 |
| Matthew A Nino |
officer: President, Retail |
C/O 3636 N CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Brian R Cira |
officer: President,Manufactured Housing |
C/O 3636 N. CENTRAL AVE., SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Anthony Crutcher |
officer: Chief Information Officer |
C/O 3636 N. CENTRAL AVE., SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Paul Bigbee |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
C/O 3636 N. CENTRAL AVE., SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Steven W Moster |
director |
7000 E. 1ST AVE., SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251 |
| Simone Reynolds |
officer: Sr. VP & CHRO |
C/O 3636 N CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Julia Sze |
director |
C/O 3636 N. CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
| Lyle D Zeller |
officer: See Remarks |
3636 N. CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012 |
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