First Guaranty Bancshares (First Guaranty Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is First Guaranty Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Guaranty Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Guaranty Bancshares (First Guaranty Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Guaranty Bancshares Inc (NAS:FGBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FGBIP.PFD:USA

Address

400 East Thomas Street, Hammond, LA, USA, 70401

Website

https://www.fgb.net

First Guaranty Bancshares Inc provides personalized commercial banking services to its customers in Louisiana, through several banking facilities in the Market Services Areas. Its principal business activity includes attracting deposits and investing it together with funds generated from operations and borrowings insecurities and in lending activities to serve the credit needs of its customer base. The company offers commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, construction and land development loans, agricultural and farmland loans, and to a lesser extent, consumer and multifamily loans.

Executives

Vanessa R Drew	director	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401
Amanda Wood Barnett	officer: General Counsel	1412 CENTRE COURT DRIVE, SUITE 101, ALEXANDRIA LA 71301
Smith Edgar R. Iii	director	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401
William K Hood	director	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401
Marshall T Reynolds	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board	2450 FIRST AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25704
Smith & Hood Holding Company, Llc	10 percent owner	11239 HIGHWAY 16, AMITE LA 70422
Eric Dosch	officer: SVP and CFO	2450 FIRST AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25703
Jack Rossi	director	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401
Lewis Alton B Jr	officer: Chief Executive Officer	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401
Glenda Baskin Glover	director	911 E. WINDING CREEK DRIVE, SUITE 150, EAGLE ID 83616
Smith & Hood Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 367, AMITE LA 70422
Gary A Simanson	director	717 KING STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Michael R. Sharp	officer: President and CLO	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401
Michele E. Lobianco	officer: Chief Financial Officer	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401
Loy F. Weaver	officer: Executive Vice President	400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401