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FHLD (Freedom Hldg) Predictability Rank


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What is Freedom Hldg Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Freedom Hldg Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Freedom Hldg Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Freedom Hldg Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Freedom Hldg Inc (OTCPK:FHLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CMLS SBSAA LPTV BBGI TMGI XHLD XTER:RRTL TSE:9404 TSE:9401 NXST LUX:SESGL TSE:4676 SAU:4072 LSE:ITV NMAX BOM:532733 SZSE:301551 TGNA MIL:MFEB TSE:9412
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10524 Independence Avenue, Chatsworth, CA, USA, 91311
Website
https://www.freedomenergyholdings.com
Freedom Hldg Inc through its subsidiary The Awareness Group (TAG), operates in the alternative energy industry. TAG focuses on the solar energy sector, offering a comprehensive platform called TAG GRID that integrates solar sales, project funding, and lending solutions. The company is also involved in mergers and acquisitions, having acquired multiple companies in engineering, fintech services, and generation, which are integrated into their operations.
Executives
Robert W Carteaux director 6615 BROTHERHOOD WAY, FORT WAYNE IN 46825
Brian K Kistler director, 10 percent owner, officer: Principle Executive Officer 215 NORTH JEFFERSON, OSSIAN IN 46777
Stan P Lipp director 6615 BROTHERHOOD WAY, FORT WAYNE IN 46825
Rodney J Sinn director, 10 percent owner 6615 BROTHERHOOD WAY, FORT WAYNE IN 46825
Gregory K Fields director 6615 BROTHERHOOD WAY, FORT WAYNE IN 46825
Robin W Hunt director, officer: Principal Financial Officer 6615 BROTHERHOOD WAY, FORT WAYNE IN 46825