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Shinhan Financial Group Co (FRA:KSF1) Predictability Rank


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What is Shinhan Financial Group Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shinhan Financial Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Shinhan Financial Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shinhan Financial Group Co (FRA:KSF1) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd (FRA:KSF1) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XKRX:105560 XKRX:086790 XKRX:024110 XKRX:323410 XKRX:316140 XKRX:138930 XKRX:175330 XKRX:139130 XKRX:006220 XKRX:007330 NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK NSE:SBIN SAU:1120 XPAR:BNP MIC:SBER SGX:D05 ISX:BBCA MIL:ISP
Traded in Other Exchanges
SHG:USA 055550:Korea KSF1:Germany
Address
20, Sejong-daero 9-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul, KOR, 04513
Website
http://www.shinhangroup.com
Shinhan Financial is Korea's largest banking group. Its 11.2% market share of loans trails KB's 12.8%, but Shinhan has more contribution from nonbank and overseas businesses than rivals. Nonbank units include Shinhan Card, the country's largest credit card company, brokerage firm Shinhan Securities, and a top-five presence in life insurance. It also owns leasing firm Shinhan Capital, Shinhan Asset Management, and regional bank Jeju Bank, among others. Unlike KB, whose predecessor banks were originally founded by the government, Shinhan has always been a private-sector bank, having grown to the top spot organically and through M&A after having been only a second-tier player before the Asian financial crisis.

Shinhan Financial Group Co (FRA:KSF1) Headlines

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