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FWRD (Forward Air) Predictability Rank


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What is Forward Air Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Forward Air Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Forward Air Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Forward Air's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Forward Air Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1915 Snapps Ferry Road, Building N, Greeneville, TN, USA, 37745
Forward Air Corp is an asset-light freight and logistics company. The company's operating segment includes Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal and Corporate. The company generates maximum revenue from the Omni Logistics segment. The expedited Freight segment operates a comprehensive national network to provide expedited regional, inter-regional, and national LTL (less-than-truckload) services. It also offers customers local pick-up and delivery and other services including final mile, truckload, shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. The Company conducts business in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Executives
Chris C Ruble officer: Sr. Vice President, Operations PO BOX 1058, GREENVILLIE TN 37744
Kyle R Mitchin officer: Senior VP, Human Resources 1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Nancee L Ronning officer: Chief Commercial Officer 1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Javier Polit director 1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Mayes George S Jr director 5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Craig Carlock director C/O THE FRESH MARKET, INC., 628 GREEN VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 500, GREENSBORO NC 27408
George M Lynch director 2566 KENT RIDGE COURT, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48025
C Robert Campbell director 800 DOUGLAS ROAD, 12TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Michael L Hance officer: Senior VP, CLO and Secretary 430 AIRPORT ROAD, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Chitra Nayak director 1400 16TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Thomas Schmitt officer: President & CEO 1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Ronald W Allen director P O BOX 1734, ATLANTA GA 30301
Laurie Anne Tucker director 65 MARYS CREEK COVE NORTH, EADS TN 38028
Scott M Niswonger director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chairman 165 MADISON AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Valerie A Bonebrake director 1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745