FWRD (Forward Air) Predictability Rank

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What is Forward Air Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Forward Air Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Forward Air Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Forward Air Corp (NAS:FWRD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1915 Snapps Ferry Road, Building N, Greeneville, TN, USA, 37745

Website

https://www.forwardaircorp.com

Forward Air Corp is an asset-light freight and logistics company. The company's operating segment includes Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal and Corporate. The company generates maximum revenue from the Omni Logistics segment. The expedited Freight segment operates a comprehensive national network to provide expedited regional, inter-regional, and national LTL (less-than-truckload) services. It also offers customers local pick-up and delivery and other services including final mile, truckload, shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. The Company conducts business in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Executives

Chris C Ruble	officer: Sr. Vice President, Operations	PO BOX 1058, GREENVILLIE TN 37744
Kyle R Mitchin	officer: Senior VP, Human Resources	1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Nancee L Ronning	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Javier Polit	director	1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Mayes George S Jr	director	5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Craig Carlock	director	C/O THE FRESH MARKET, INC., 628 GREEN VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 500, GREENSBORO NC 27408
George M Lynch	director	2566 KENT RIDGE COURT, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48025
C Robert Campbell	director	800 DOUGLAS ROAD, 12TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Michael L Hance	officer: Senior VP, CLO and Secretary	430 AIRPORT ROAD, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Chitra Nayak	director	1400 16TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Thomas Schmitt	officer: President & CEO	1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745
Ronald W Allen	director	P O BOX 1734, ATLANTA GA 30301
Laurie Anne Tucker	director	65 MARYS CREEK COVE NORTH, EADS TN 38028
Scott M Niswonger	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chairman	165 MADISON AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Valerie A Bonebrake	director	1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745