Lepu Biopharma Co (HKSE:02157) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is Lepu Biopharma Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lepu Biopharma Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lepu Biopharma Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lepu Biopharma Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Lepu Biopharma Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Lepu Biopharma Co Ltd (HKSE:02157) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 651, Lianheng Road, Minhang District, Shanghai, CHN, 201612

Website

https://www.lepubiopharma.com

Lepu Biopharma Co Ltd is a biopharmaceutical company focusing on oncology therapeutics and has one operating segment. The Group is principally engaged in the sales of pharmaceutical products and the research and development of new drugs. The majority operating entity of the Group is domiciled in the PRC. The company has established an integrated end-to-end platform across drug discovery, clinical development, CMC, and GMP-compliant manufacturing, encompassing all critical functions of the biopharmaceutical value chain.

Executives

Pu Zhongjie	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hu Chaohong	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Pu Jue	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hao Chunmei	2202 Interest of your spouse
Su Rongyu	2101 Beneficial owner
Miracogen Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Miracogen Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Cereblue Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Hou De Yi Min Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ning Bo Hou De Yi Min Xin Xi Ke Ji You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Le Pu Bei Jing Yi Liao Qi Xie Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Lv Yuan Shang Hai Ke Ji You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner

Lepu Biopharma Co Headlines

No Headlines