KVYO (Klaviyo) Predictability Rank

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What is Klaviyo Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Klaviyo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Klaviyo Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Klaviyo Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Klaviyo Inc (NYSE:KVYO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

125 Summer Street, 6th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02110

Website

https://www.klaviyo.com

Klaviyo Inc is a technology company that provides a software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform to enable its customers to send the right messages at the right time across email, short message service, and push notifications, more accurately measure and predict performance, and deploy specific actions and campaigns. The platform combines proprietary data and application layers into one solution with machine learning and artificial intelligence capabilities. It is focused on marketing automation within eCommerce as its first application use case. It generates revenue through the sale of subscriptions to its customers for the use of its platform. Geographically, the company generates the majority of its revenue from the Americas, followed by EMEA and APAC.

Executives

Summit Partners Growth Equity Fund Ix-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Landon Edmond	officer: Chief Legal Officer	KLAVIYO, INC., 125 SUMMER STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Stephen Eric Rowland	officer: President	1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 116, WALTHAM MA 02451
Amanda Whalen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	KLAVIYO, INC., 125 SUMMER STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Andrew Bialecki	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	KLAVIYO, INC., 125 SUMMER STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Jeff Fagnan	10 percent owner	56 WAREHAM STREET, FLOOR 3, BOSTON MA 02118
Allen Chaves	officer: Chief Technology Officer	KLAVIYO, INC., 125 SUMMER STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Jennifer Ceran	director	C/O QUOTIENT TECHNOLOGY INC., 400 LOGUE AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Ledger Susan St.	director	C/O OKTA, INC., 100 FIRST STREET, SUITE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Tony Weisman	director	C/O DUNKIN' BRANDS, INC., 130 ROYALL STREET, CANTON MA 02021
Astral Capital Abeh, Llc	10 percent owner	36 DENNY ROAD, CHESTNUT HILL MA 02467
Accomplice Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	56 WAREHAM STREET, FLOOR 3, BOSTON MA 02118
Shopify Inc.	10 percent owner	151 O'CONNOR STREET, GROUND FLOOR, OTTAWA A6 K2P 2L8
Shopify Strategic Holdings 3 Llc	10 percent owner	151 O'CONNOR STREET, GROUND FLOOR, OTTAWA A6 K2P 2L8
Accel Leaders Fund Ii Investors (2019) L.l.c.	10 percent owner	500 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301