LOVE (The Lovesac Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Lovesac Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Lovesac Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Lovesac Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » The Lovesac Co (NAS:LOVE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

421 Atlantic Street, Stamford, CT, USA, 06901

Website

https://www.lovesac.com

The Lovesac Co designs, manufactures and sells alternative furniture which is comprised of modular couches called sactionals and premium foam beanbag chairs called sacs. It also offers other accessories such as sactional-specific drink holders, Footsac blankets, decorative pillows, fitted seat tables, and ottomans. Its products are sold across the United States through its website or company-owned retail stores which are used in homes and offices. The majority of the firm's revenue is derived from the sale of Sactionals.

Executives

Albert Jack Krause	director, officer: President and COO	2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 300, STAMFORD CT 06820
Walter Field Mclallen	director	1225 17TH AVE SOUTH, NASHVILLE TN 37212
Shawn David Nelson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 300, STAMFORD CT 06820
Keith R. Siegner	officer: EVP and CFO	TWO LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 300, STAMFORD CT 06901
Andrew R Heyer	director, 10 percent owner	501 MADISON AVENUE, FLOOR 5, NEW YORK NY 10019
Satori Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	2501 N. HARWOOD ST., 20TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201
Vineet Mehra	director	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Sharon M Leite	director	100 PIER 1 PLACE, FT. WORTH TX 76102
Shirley Romig	director	TWO LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 300, STAMFORD CT 06901
Mary Fox	director	TWO LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 300, STAMFORD CT 06901
Mistral Equity Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	650 FIFTH AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, New York NY 10019
Mistral Sac Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	650 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 10, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jared Rubin	director	4300 E. FIFTH AVE., COLUMBUS OH 43219
Sac Acquisition Llc	10 percent owner	700 CANAL STREET, 4TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Donna Dellomo	officer: Executive VP and CFO	35 SAWGRASS DRIVE, SUITE 2, BELLPORT NY 11713