Lyell Immunopharma (Lyell Immunopharma) Predictability Rank

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What is Lyell Immunopharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lyell Immunopharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lyell Immunopharma (Lyell Immunopharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Lyell Immunopharma Inc (NAS:LYEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 Haskins Way, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.lyell.com

Lyell Immunopharma Inc is a T cell reprogramming company dedicated towards the mastery of T cells to eradicate solid tumors. Its pipeline includes CARs (Chimeric antigen receptors), TILs (Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes), and TCRs (T cell receptors).

Executives

Richard Klausner	director, officer: Executive Chairman	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Matthew Lang	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, 9TH FLOOR, BRISBANE CA 94005
Rahsaan Thompson	officer: Chief Legal Officer	233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 280, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Tina M. Albertson	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O LYELL IMMUNOPHARMA, INC., 201 HASKINS WAY, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gary K. Lee	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O LYELL IMMUNOPHARMA, INC., 201 HASKINS WAY, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Cathy Friedman	director	C/O INNOVIVA, INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, SUITE 500, BRISBANE CA 94005
Arch Venture Fund Ix Overage, L.p.	10 percent owner	8725 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 290, CHICAGO IL 60631
Elizabeth Homans	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O LYELL IMMUNOPHARMA, INC., 400 EAST JAMIE COURT, SUITE 301, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Stephen J. Hill	officer: Chief Technical Ops. Officer	C/O LYELL IMMUNOPHARMA, INC., 400 EAST JAMIE COURT, SUITE 301, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Charles W. Newton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	46 FREDRICK AVENUE, ATHERTON CA 94027
Otis W Brawley	director	5203 BRISTOL INDUSTRIAL WAY, BUFORD GA 30518
Elizabeth G Nabel	director	BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL, 75 FRANCIS ST, BOSTON MA 02115
William Jl Rieflin	director	NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 333 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Arch Venture Partners Ix, Llc	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631