Mister Car Wash (Mister Car Wash) Predictability Rank

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What is Mister Car Wash Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mister Car Wash Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mister Car Wash (Mister Car Wash) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Personal Services » Mister Car Wash Inc (NYSE:MCW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

222 E 5th Street, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85705

Website

https://www.mistercarwash.com

Mister Car Wash Inc is a car wash brand offering express exterior and interior cleaning services. Express Exterior Locations offers express exterior cleaning services and Interior Cleaning Locations offers both express exterior and interior cleaning services. The company recognizes revenue in two main streams. It offers an Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) program to its customers. The UWC program entitles the customer to unlimited washes for a monthly fee, cancellable at any time. Second, revenue from the car wash and quick lube services.

Executives

Joseph Duane Matheny	officer: See Remarks	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Markus Hartmann	officer: General Counsel	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
John Lo-minn Lai	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Myra I. Chimienti	officer: See Remarks	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Jedidiah Marc Gold	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Mary Lyn Porter	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Casey Penn Lindsay	officer: See Remarks	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Lisa Bossard Funk	officer: General Counsel	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Veronica Rogers	director	C/O MISTER CAR WASH, INC., 222 E 5TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85705
Ronald Kirk	director	TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED, 12500 TI BOULEVARD MS 3999, DALLAS TX 75243
Green Equity Investors Vi, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
John Kristofer Galashan	director, 10 percent owner	LEONARD, GREEN & PARTNERS, 11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Lgp Associates Vi-a Llc	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Susan E Docherty	director	THE BRINK'S COMPANY, 1801 BAYBERRY COURT, 4TH FLOOR, RICHMOND VA 23226
Lgp Associates Vi-b Llc	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025