What is Antero Midstream Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Antero Midstream Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Antero Midstream (Antero Midstream) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1615 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO, USA, 80202
Antero Midstream Corp is a midstream company that owns, operates, and develops midstream energy infrastructure services and production activity in the Appalachian Basin's Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale located in West Virginia and Ohio. The company has two operating segments; the Gathering and Processing segment includes a network of gathering pipelines and compressor stations that collect and process production from Antero Resources wells in West Virginia and Ohio and the Water Handling segment includes two independent systems that deliver water from sources including the Ohio River, local reservoirs and several regional waterways. It derives a majority of its revenue from the Gathering and Processing segment.
Executives
| Janine J Mcardle |
director |
9337B KATY FREEWAY, #155, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Brooks J Klimley |
director |
|
| Sheri Pearce |
officer: See Remarks |
1615 WYNKOOP ST., DENVER CO 80202 |
| Michael N. Kennedy |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
707 - 17TH STREET, SUITE 3600, DENVER CO 80202 |
| David H Keyte |
director |
1615 WYNKOOP STREET, DENVER CO 80902 |
| Nancy Chisholm |
director |
1615 WYNKOOP STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Keenan W Howard Jr |
director |
410 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Brendan E. Krueger |
officer: See Remarks |
1615 WYNKOOP STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Yvette K Schultz |
officer: See Remarks |
1615 WYNKOOP STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Paul M Rady |
director, officer: Chairman & CEO |
1625 17TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Warren Glen C Jr |
director, officer: President & Secretary |
1625 17TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| K. Phil Yoo |
officer: VP-Accounting, CAO |
1625 17TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Warburg Pincus Private Equity X O&g, L.p. |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Peter Kagan |
director |
C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Yorktown Energy Partners Viii, L.p. |
director, 10 percent owner |
410 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
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