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NET (Cloudflare) Predictability Rank


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What is Cloudflare Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cloudflare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cloudflare Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cloudflare's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cloudflare Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Cloudflare Inc (NYSE:NET) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
VRSN FLT AKAM CHKP ZS SQ MDB SPLK IOT OKTA MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR XAMS:ADYEN
Traded in Other Exchanges
NET:Mexico 0A3Z:UK 8CF:Germany
Address
101 Townsend Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107
Website
https://www.cloudflare.com
Cloudflare is a software company based in San Francisco, California, that offers security and web performance offerings by utilizing a distributed, serverless content delivery network, or CDN. The firm's edge computing platform, Workers, leverages this network by providing clients the ability to deploy, and execute code without maintaining servers.
Executives
Thomas J Seifert officer: Chief Financial Officer 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Douglas James Kramer officer: General Counsel C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Michelle Zatlyn director, officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Janel Riley officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Matthew Prince director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chair of the Board C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Maria S Eitel director C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Carl Ledbetter director, 10 percent owner 2755 EAST COTTONWOOD PARKWAY, SUITE 520, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Katrin Suder director C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Scott D Sandell director, 10 percent owner
Paul D. Underwood officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Mark J Hawkins director C/O LOGITECH, INC., 6505 KAISER DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94555
Stanley J Meresman director 2071 HUNTINGTON LANE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Forest Baskett 10 percent owner
Patrick J Kerins 10 percent owner
Venrock Associates V Lp 10 percent owner 3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304