Patriot National Bancorp (Patriot National Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Patriot National Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Patriot National Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Patriot National Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Patriot National Bancorp (Patriot National Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Patriot National Bancorp Inc (NAS:PNBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PN21:Germany

Address

900 Bedford Street, Stamford, CT, USA, 06901

Website

https://www.bankpatriot.com

Patriot National Bancorp Inc is the holding company for Patriot Bank NA, that provides consumer and commercial banking services to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and municipalities in Fairfield and New Haven Counties in Connecticut and Westchester County, New York. Its products include checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, time certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. The Bank's lending portfolio is comprised of commercial mortgage and construction loans, commercial loans, home improvement loans, home equity lines of credit, and other personal loans. In addition, the Bank offers bank checks, money orders, automated teller machines, interactive teller machines, online and mobile banking, credit cards, and debit cards.

Executives

Grace Doherty	director	125 THACHER ST., MILTON MA 02186
Thomas E. Slater	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	2 DIXON TERRACE, KINNELON NJ 07405
Alfred Jr. Botta	officer: EVP & Chief Payment Officer	C/O PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP, INC., 900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901
David Christopher Lowery	officer: EVP & Chief Lending Officer	C/O PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP, INC., 900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901
Karen Rojeski	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	99 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Steven Brian Grunblatt	officer: EVP & Chief Information Office	C/O PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP, INC., 900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901
Gregory P. Ho	other: (1) and (2)	C/O SPRING MOUNTAIN CAPITAL, LP, 650 MADISON AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Smc Holdings I G.p., Llc	other: (1) and (2)	C/O SPRING MOUNTAIN CAPITAL, LP, 650 MADISON AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Smc Holdings I, Lp	10 percent owner, other: (1) and (2)	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John Steffens	other: (1) and (2)	C/O DIGITALBRIDGE GROUP, INC., 750 PARK OF COMMERCE DRIVE SUITE 210, BOCCA RATON FL 33487
Robert Glenn Russell	officer: President & CEO	1902 LONG HILL ROAD, MILLINGTON NJ 07946
Frederick Staudmyer	officer: EVP and Chief HR Officer	C/O PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP, INC., 900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901
Brent M Ciurlino	director	C/O PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP, INC., 900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901
David W Christiansen	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901
Samuel S Davis	officer: EVP and Chief Credit Officer	C/O PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP, INC., 900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901