What is Pricesmart Predictability Rank?
4 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Pricesmart Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Pricesmart (Pricesmart) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9740 Scranton Road, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Pricesmart Inc is principally engaged in operating U.S.-style membership shopping warehouse clubs that offer consumer goods at low prices. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California, United States, and operates stores in Latin America and the Caribbean, with Central America contributing over half of its net warehouse club sales. The company's revenue consists of net warehouse club sales from merchandise sales, membership income from annual membership fees, export sales, and other income, with net warehouse club sales accounting for the majority of the company's total revenue.
Executives
| Edgar Zurcher |
director |
BURETE ZURCHER, CALLE 1 ERA AUS 9 Y 11, NO 959 BO AMON, SAN JOSE COSTA RICA G2 00000 |
| Sherry S. Bahrambeygui |
director |
9740 SCRANTON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Wayne J Sadin |
officer: EVP and CIO |
9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Ana Luisa Bianchi |
officer: EVP-Chief Merch. Officer |
PRICESMART, INC., 9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Francisco Velasco |
officer: EVP, GC and Secretary |
PRICESMART, INC., 9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Rodrigo Calvo |
officer: EVP-Real Estate |
9740 SCRANTON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| John Thelan |
director |
9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Christopher S Souhrada |
officer: EVP-Club Operations |
9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Gordon H. Hanson |
director |
9640 SCRANTON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Chong Jesus Von |
officer: EVP-Foods Merchandising |
PRICESMART, INC., 9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| John D Hildebrandt |
officer: EVP -- Caribbean & Central Am. |
4649 MORENA BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92117 |
| Robert E Price |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Acting Chief Executive Officer |
7979 IVANHOE AVE, STE 520, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Price Family Charitable Fund |
10 percent owner |
7979 IVANHOE AVE, STE 520, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Nicolas Maslowski |
officer: EVP-Member Experience |
9740 SCRANTON RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Juan Ignacio Biehl |
officer: EVP and CTO |
9740 SCRANTON RD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
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