RAND (Rand Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Rand Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rand Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rand Capital Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Rand Capital Corp (NAS:RAND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1405 Rand Building, Buffalo, NY, USA, 14203

Website

https://www.randcapital.com

Rand Capital Corp is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified investment company. The company's investment objective is to generate current income and, when possible, complement its current income with capital appreciation by focusing its debt and related equity investments in privately-held, lower middle market companies with committed and experienced managements in a broad variety of industries. It predominantly invests in higher-yielding debt instruments.

Executives

Adam Samuel Gusky	director	RAND CAPITAL CORPORATION, 14 LAFAYETTE SQUARE, SUITE 2200, BUFFALO NY 14203
Benjamin E Godley	director	RAND CAPITAL CORPORATION, 14 LAFAYETTE SQUARE, SUITE 2200, BUFFALO NY 14203
Cari L Jaroslawsky	director	C/O HARTER SECREST & EMERY LLP, 1600 BAUSCH & LOMB PLACE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Daniel P Penberthy	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O RAND CAPITAL CORP, 2200 RAND BLDG, BUFFALO NY 14203
Robert M Zak	director	250 MAIN STREET, BUFFALO NY 14202
Erland E Kailbourne	director	C/O RAND CAPITAL CORP, 2200 RAND BUILDING, BUFFFALO NY 14203
Heather Eastgate	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O RAND CAPITAL CORPORATION, 14 LAFAYETTE SQUARE, SUITE 1405, BUFFALO NY 14203
East Asset Management, Llc	10 percent owner	777 NW BEACON SQUARE BLVD., BOCA RATON FL 33487
Nancy Marie Stone	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O RAND CAPITAL CORPORATION, 14 LAFAYETTE SQUARE, SUITE 1405, BUFFALO NY 14203
Margaret Brechtel	officer: EVP, Treas., CFO & Sec.	C/O RAND CAPITAL CORPORATION, 14 LAFAYETTE SQUARE, SUITE 1405, BUFFALO NY 14203
User-friendly Holding, Llc	10 percent owner	10200 GROGANS MILL RD., SUITE 440, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
User-friendly Phone Book, Llc	10 percent owner	10200 GROGANS MILL RD., SUITE 440, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Newman Reginald B Ii	director	PRIOR AVIATION SERVICE INC., 50 NORTH AIRPORT DRIVE, BUFFALO NY 14225
Utility Service Holding Co., Inc.	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 240, WARTHEN GA 31094
Colmac Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	8 KING STREET EAST, SUITE 1901, TORONTO A6 M5C 1B5