GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » SR Bancorp Inc (NAS:SRBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

SRBK (SR Bancorp) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2023. Start your Free Trial

What is SR Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SR Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SR Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SR Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

SR Bancorp Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » SR Bancorp Inc (NAS:SRBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BEOB PSBQ CWBK TYFG WMPN FFDF CMTV BSBK RBKB PFLC NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 SGX:D05 XPAR:BNP MIL:ISP MIL:UCG NSE:SBIN TSE:8411
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
220 West Union Avenue, Bound Brook, NJ, USA, 08805
Website
https://www.somersetregalbank.com
SR Bancorp Inc principal business is to acquire deposits from individuals and businesses in the communities surrounding offices and to use these deposits to fund loans.
Executives
David M Orbach director, officer: Executive Chair 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
Mary E Davey director 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
Thomas Lupo director 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
William P Taylor director, officer: CEO 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
James Castelletti officer: SVP-Sr. Comm. Lending Officer 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
Marc Lebovitz director 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
Christopher J Pribula director, officer: President and COO 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
Douglas M Sonier director 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
Neil C Viotto officer: SVP-Mortgage Lending 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
Harris M Faqueri officer: VP and CFO 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
John W Mooney director 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805
James R Silkensen director 220 WEST UNION AVENUE, BOUND BROOK NJ 08805