TCON (TRACON Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is TRACON Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TRACON Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TRACON Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » TRACON Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTCPK:TCON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4350 La Jolla Village Drive, Suite 800, San Diego, CA, USA, 92122

Website

https://www.traconpharma.com

TRACON Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of novel targeted therapeutics for cancer and utilizing its cost efficient, contract research organization (CRO) independent product development platform to partner with ex-U.S. companies to develop and commercialize innovative products in the United States. The company's drug candidate includes Envafolimab, TRC102, TRC253, and Bispecific Antibodies.

Executives

Opaleye Management Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE BOSTON PLACE, SUITE 2600, BOSTON MA 02108
Charles Theuer	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4350 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Bonne J. Adams	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4350 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Scott B. Brown	officer: Chief Accounting Officer (PAO)	C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4350 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
William R Larue	director	C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 8910 UNIVERSITY CENTER LANE, SUITE 700, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Carol C. Lam	director	C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4350 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, STE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Saundra L Pelletier	director	C/O EVOFEM BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Lisa Johnson-pratt	director	C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4350 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Ikarian Healthcare Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% Group	100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1620, DALLAS TX 75201
Mark C Wiggins	officer: Chief Business Officer	12671 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Neil Shahrestani	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% Group	12806 WINDING CREEK DRIVE, FRISCO TX 75035
Ikarian Healthcare Fund Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% Group	100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE1620, DALLAS TX 75201
Chart Westcott Living Trust	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% Group	100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE1620, DALLAS TX 75201
Ikarian Capital, Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% Group	100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1620, DALLAS TX 75201
Puissance Cross-border Opportunities V Llc	10 percent owner	950 THIRD AVENUE, 25TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022