CI Financial (TSX:CIX) Predictability Rank

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What is CI Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CI Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CI Financial Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » CI Financial Corp (TSX:CIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CIXXF:USA CF7:Germany

Address

15 York Street, 2nd Floor, Legal Department, Toronto, ON, CAN, M5J 0A3

Website

https://www.cifinancial.com

CI Financial is a provider of asset- and wealth-management products and services. The company has a decent share in the Canadian fund market (fifth behind Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion, IGM Financial, and Fidelity at the end of last year) and remains the second-largest non-bank-affiliated asset manager in the Canadian market, with CAD 135.4 billion in assets under management (including CAD 36.0 billion in AUM managed for its CI Assante Wealth Management, CI Private Counsel, and Aligned Capital Partners subsidiaries) at the end of September. The firm also had CAD 350.7 billion in assets under advisement (including CAD 250.6 billion from its US wealth-management operations and CAD 100.1 billion from its Canadian wealth-management partners) and CAD 31.9 billion in custody assets.

Executives

Brigette Elizabeth Chang	Director
Paul Perrow	Director
William Thomas Holland	Director
Yvette Zhang	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Hoi Sha Elsa Li	Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
Jennifer Francine Sinopoli	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Manisha Burman	Senior Officer
Darie Urbanky	Senior Officer
Amarjit Kaur Anderson	Senior Officer
Julie Lynn Silcox	Senior Officer
Kurt Macalpine	Director, Senior Officer
Christopher James Enright	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Sean Andrew Etherington	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Marc-andre Lewis	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Amit Muni	Senior Officer