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WINSF (Wins Finance Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Wins Finance Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Wins Finance Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Wins Finance Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Wins Finance Holdings Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 58 Jianguo Road, 1st Floor, Building 1B, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100024
Wins Finance Holdings Inc. is an integrated financing solution provider that assists Chinese small and medium enterprises that have limited access to financing and enables them to obtain funding for business development. The Company is focused on identifying value accretive investment opportunities and assets in China and the United States. The Company operates and manages its business in one reportable segment, which is to provide financial services in the PRC domestic market.
Executives
Amy He officer: Chief Financial Officer 8TH FLOOR BLOCK 8 AOLINJIATAI BLDG, 1 KEHUIQIAN ST, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 00000
Richard Xu director, officer: President 65 BROADWAY, SUITE 501, NEW YORK NY 10006
Bradley Reifler director 590 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nicholas Clements director 6F/TOWER, 2 WEST PROSPER CENTRE, NO.5, GUANGHUA ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100020
Jingxiao Zhang director STATISTICS SCHOOL, RENMIN UNIVERSITY, 59 ZHONGGUANCUN AVENUE, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100872
Jianming Hao director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer UNIT 106, TERN CENTRE, TOWER II,, 251 QUEEN'S ROAD, CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 00000
Peilin Zhao 10 percent owner 1908, 19/F, BLOCK 2, NO. 116, GUANGANMENNEIDAJIE, XUANWU XU, BEIJING F4 XXXXXX
Hong Wang 10 percent owner 8TH FL BLK 5 AOLINJIATAI BLDG, 1 KEHUIQIAN ST, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100192

Wins Finance Holdings Headlines

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