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Seaboard Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Conglomerates subindustry, Seaboard's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Seaboard Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, Seaboard's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Seaboard's Predictability Rank falls into.



Seaboard Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Seaboard Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Seaboard's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Seaboard Business Description

Seaboard logo
Industry
Industrials » Conglomerates NAICS : 551112 SIC : 6719
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9000 West 67th Street, Merriam, KS, USA, 66202
Seaboard Corp is a conglomerate of food production and transportation businesses. The group operates six business segments: pork, commodity trading and milling, marine, sugar and alcohol, power, and turkey. The group offers hog production and pork processing, biodiesel production, agriculture commodity trading, agriculture commodity processing and logistics, grain and feed milling, cargo shipping, sugarcane production, alcohol production, sugar refining, power production, turkey production and processing, and production of jalapeno peppers. The largest end markets by revenue are the Caribbean and Central and South America.
Executives
Bresky Jacob A. officer: Vice Pres-Business Development 9000 WEST 67TH STREET 3RD FLOOR SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Bresky Ellen S. director, 10 percent owner 9000 WEST 67TH STREET 3RD FLOOR SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Baena Douglas W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BAENA DOUGLAS W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Sand Darwin E officer: Pres. & CEO, Seaboard Foods 9000 WEST 67TH STREET SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Winfield Ivan J. Jr officer: VP-Information Technology 9000 WEST 67TH STREET SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Moss Ralph L officer: Senior Vice President 818 CONNECTICUT AVE NW STE 801 WASHINGTON DC 20006
Bresky Steven J director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO P.O. BOX 2972 SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66201
Squires Paul M. director SEABOARD FLOUR 1320 CENTRE STREET, SUITE 200 NEWTON CENTER MA 02459
Trollinger Michael D. officer: VP, Corporate Controller, CAO 9000 WEST 67TH STREET SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
Holden Zachery J officer: Assistant Secretary 9000 WEST 67TH STREET MERRIAM KS 66202
Shifman Edward I. Jr. director 219 FULLER STREET WEST NEWTON MA 02465
Rodrigues J E director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: RODRIGUES J E a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Becker David M officer: Sr Vice President-Gen. Counsel PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BECKER DAVID M a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Tywater Ty A officer: Vice President 9000 WEST 67TH STREET MERRIAM KS 66202
Rankin David H. officer: Vice President 9000 WEST 67TH STREET SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66202
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