Sierra Bancorp (Sierra Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Sierra Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sierra Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sierra Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sierra Bancorp (Sierra Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Sierra Bancorp (NAS:BSRR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

86 North Main Street, P.O. Box 1930, Porterville, CA, USA, 93257

Website

https://www.sierrabancorp.com

Sierra Bancorp is a California-based bank holding company, which offers a range of retail and commercial banking services. it offers a wide range of deposit products and services for individuals and businesses including checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts. The company's lending activities cover real estate, commercial (including small business), mortgage warehouse, agricultural, and consumer loans, and also offers commercial construction loans and multifamily and agricultural credit facilities among other types of real estate loans.

Executives

Susan M Abundis	director	86 NORTH MAIN STREET, POTERVILLE CA 93257
Natalia M Coen	officer: EVP/CRO	86 NORTH MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Laurence S Dutto	director	86 N MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Gordon T Woods	director	200 E HENDERSON, PORTERVILLE CA 93258
Julie G Castle	director	86 NORTH MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Michele M Gil	director	86 NORTH MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
James C Holly	director
Michael Olague	officer: EVP/Chief Banking Officer	86 N MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Cindy L Dabney	officer: SVP/Chief Accounting Officer	86 NORTH MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Ermina Karim	director	86 NORTH MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Lynda Scearcy	director	86 N. MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Jennifer Ann Johnson	officer: EVP/Chief Admin. Officer	7701 EAST KELLOGG DRIVE, SUITE 200, WICHITA KS 67207
Vonn R Christenson	director	86 N MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257
Christopher G Treece	officer: EVP/Chief Financial Officer	1331 17TH STREET, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202
Kevin J Mcphaill	officer: President/CEO	86 N MAIN STREET, PORTERVILLE CA 93257