GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1962. Start your Free Trial
1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


The Walt Disney Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

The Walt Disney Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Walt Disney Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Business Description

Address
500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, CA, USA, 91521
Disney operates in three global business segments: entertainment, sports, and experiences. Entertainment and experiences both benefit from franchises and characters the firm has created over the course of a century. Entertainment includes the ABC broadcast network, several cable television networks, and the Disney+ and Hulu streaming services. Within the segment, Disney also engages in movie and television production and distribution, with content licensed to movie theaters, other content providers, or, increasingly, kept in-house for use on Disney's own streaming platform and television networks. The sports segment houses ESPN and the ESPN+ streaming service. Experiences contains Disney's theme parks and vacation destinations, and also benefits from merchandise licensing.
Executives
Sonia L Coleman officer: Sr. EVP and Chief HR Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Brent Woodford officer: EVP, Control, Fin Plan & Tax 1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Amy Chang director 2100 SEAPORT BLVD., C/O INFORMATICA CORPORATION, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Kevin A Lansberry officer: Interim Chief Finan Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Christine M Mccarthy officer: SEVP-Chief Financial Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-0964
Carolyn Everson director C/O THE HERTZ CORPORATION, 225 BRAE BOULEVARD, PARK RIDGE NJ 07656-0713
Kristina K Schake officer: Sr. EVP and Chief Comm Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Horacio E Gutierrez officer: Sr EVP, General Counsel & Secy 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Geoff Morrell officer: SEVP Chf Corp Affairs Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Robert A Chapek officer: Chief Executive Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Paul J Richardson officer: Sr. EVP and Chief HR Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Calvin Mcdonald director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Robert A Iger director, officer: Chairman and CEO C/O WALT DISNEY CO, 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-1062
Zenia B. Mucha officer: SEVP Corporate Communications 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Mary Jayne Parker officer: SEVP and Chief HR Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-0966

The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Q4 2023 Walt Disney Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Q1 2023 Walt Disney Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Q2 2023 Walt Disney Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Q2 2022 Walt Disney Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Q4 2021 Walt Disney Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Walt Disney Co Annual Shareholders Meeting Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Q2 2021 Walt Disney Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Walt Disney Co Investor Day Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024

Q4 2022 Walt Disney Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-22-2024