Farmers National Banc (Farmers National Banc) Predictability Rank

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What is Farmers National Banc Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Farmers National Banc Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Farmers National Banc Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Farmers National Banc (Farmers National Banc) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Farmers National Banc Corp (NAS:FMNB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

20 South Broad Street, Canfield, OH, USA, 44406

Website

https://www.farmersbankgroup.com

Farmers National Banc Corp is a one-bank holding company engaged in financial activities, including securities underwriting and dealing, insurance agency and underwriting activities, and merchant banking activities. It operates in the domestic banking, trust, retirement consulting, insurance, and financial management industries. The company has two operating segments of business; the Bank segment, and the Trust segment, out of which the majority of its revenue is derived from the bank segment.

Executives

Mark J Wenick	officer: Chief Wealth Management Office	20 S BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Gina A Richardson	director	20 S BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Andre Thornton	director	20 S BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Joseph W Sabat	officer: VP/Controller	20 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Ralph D Macali	director
Gregory C Bestic	director	5415 WOODLAND PL, CANFIELD OH 44406
Edward Muransky	director	20 S BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Neil J Kaback	director
Kevin J Helmick	officer: VP/Retail Sales	20 SOUTH BROAD ST., PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Mark A Nicastro	officer: VP/Director of Human Resources	20 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Amber B Wallace	officer: Sr VP/Director of Marketing	20 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Timothy Carney	officer: SEVP/Chief Banking Officer	194 WEST MAIN STREET, CORTLAND OH 44410
Nicholas D Varischetti	director	FOUR NORTHSHORE CENTER, 106 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Michael E Matuszak	officer: EVP/Chief Operating Officer	20 S BROAD STREET, PO BOX 555, CANFIELD OH 44406
Anne Frederick Crawford	director	530 STONEYBROOK LN, CANFIELD OH 44406