The GEO Group (The GEO Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The GEO Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The GEO Group (The GEO Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » The GEO Group Inc (NYSE:GEO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GEO1:Mexico GEG:Germany GEG:Germany

Address

4955 Technology Way, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431

Website

https://www.geogroup.com

The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community-reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which primarily encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services.

Executives

Shayn P. March	officer: VP of Finance and Treasurer	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Scott Michael Kernan	director	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
James H. Black	officer: SVP & Pres, Secure Services	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Christopher D. Ryan	officer: Senior VP, Human Resources	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Lindsay L. Koren	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Matthew Albence	officer: Senior VP, Client Relations	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Andrew N Shapiro	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Thomas C. Bartzokis	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Terry P. Mayotte	director	C/O TREAN INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 150 LAKE STREET WEST, WAYZATA MN 55391
Jack Brewer	director	6200 EXCELSIOR BLVD., SUITE 104, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
George C Zoley	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Anne N Foreman	director	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Richard H Glanton	director	C/O THE GEO GROUP, INC., 4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Duane Helkowski	director	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Blake Davis	officer: Pres. GEO Secure Services	4955 TECHNOLOGY WAY, BOCA RATON FL 33431