Horizon Bancorp (IN) (Horizon Bancorp (IN)) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Horizon Bancorp (IN) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Horizon Bancorp (IN) Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Horizon Bancorp (IN) (Horizon Bancorp (IN)) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Horizon Bancorp (IN) (NAS:HBNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

515 Franklin Street, Michigan City, IN, USA, 46360

Website

https://www.horizonbank.com

Horizon Bancorp (IN) is a United States-based holding company providing banking services. It is engaged in providing commercial and retail banking services, corporate and individual trust and agency services, and other services incident to banking. The company also provides commercial loans, real estate loans, mortgage warehouse loans, consumer loans, and other credit facilities. In addition, the company provides advances, loans, term loans, overdrafts for various business purposes such as business expansion, purchasing machinery and equipment, business mortgaged and others. The company has one principal business segment, commercial banking. Revenue generated by the company mainly consists of dividends received.

Executives

Susan D Aaron	director	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Todd A. Etzler	officer: Executive Vice President & GC	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Vanessa Peterson Williams	director	999 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084-4716
Craig M Dwight	officer: Chief Executive Officer	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Thomas M Prame	officer: President	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Noe S Najera	officer: EVP, Sr. Retail & Mort Lending	515 FRANKLIN ST, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Julie Scheck Freigang	director	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Michele M. Magnuson	director	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
James D Neff	officer: President	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Kathie A Deruiter	officer: Executive Vice President	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Lynn Kerber	officer: EVP & SCCO	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Dennis Kuhn	officer: Executive Vice President	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Steven William Reed	director	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Peter L Pairitz	director	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360
Eric P. Blackhurst	director	515 FRANKLIN STREET, MICHIGAN CITY IN 46360