KMX (CarMax) Predictability Rank

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What is CarMax Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CarMax Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CarMax Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CarMax Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » CarMax Inc (NYSE:KMX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0HTQ:UK XA4:Germany XA4:Germany

Address

12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway, Richmond, VA, USA, 23238

Website

https://www.carmax.com

CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of around 250 used retail stores. It was formed in 1993 as a unit of Circuit City and spun off into an independent company in late 2002. Used-vehicle sales were 83% of fiscal 2025 revenue and wholesale about 17%, with the remaining portion composed of extended service plans and repair. In fiscal 2025, the company retailed and wholesaled 789,050 and 544,312 used vehicles, respectively. CarMax is the largest used-vehicle retailer in the US but still estimates that it had only about 3.7% US market share of vehicles 0-10 years old in calendar 2024. It seeks over 5% share. CarMax is based in Richmond, Virginia.

Executives

Mitchell D Steenrod	director	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PKWY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Enrique N Mayor-mora	officer: SVP & CFO	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Jill A Livesay	officer: VP, Controller & PAO	CARMAX, INC., 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Mohammad Shamim	officer: SVP and CIO	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
James Lyski	officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer	CARMAX, 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Jon G Daniels	officer: SVP, CAF	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
William D Nash	officer: EVP, HR & Admin Services	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Charles Joseph Wilson	officer: SVP	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Diane L Cafritz	officer: SVP & CHRO	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Darren C Newberry	officer: SVP	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Ronald E Blaylock	director
Edwin J Hill	officer: SVP	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Eric M Margolin	officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	CARMAX, 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Thomas J Folliard	officer: Executive Vice President	12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Reedy Thomas W Jr	officer: SVP & CFO	12800 TUCKHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238