Helen Of Troy (Helen Of Troy) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Helen Of Troy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Helen Of Troy (Helen Of Troy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Helen Of Troy Ltd (NAS:HELE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HT2:Germany

Address

2 Church Street, Clarendon House, Hamilton, BMU, HM 11

Website

https://www.helenoftroy.com

Helen Of Troy Ltd is a consumer products company offering creative products and solutions for its customers through a diversified portfolio of brands. It has two operating segments: Home & Outdoor segment provides a broad range of consumer products for home activities such as food preparation, cooking, cleaning, and organization; as well as products for outdoor and on-the-go activities such as hydration, food storage, backpacks, and travel gear, and The Beauty & Wellness segment provides beauty and wellness products including mass and prestige market beauty appliances, prestige market liquid-based hair and personal care products, and wellness devices including thermometers, water and air filtration systems, humidifiers, and fans.

Executives

Brian Grass	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Noel Geoffroy	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Gary B Abromovitz	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Gomez Sades Tabata Lorena	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Elena Otero	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Tessa Judge	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Julien Mininberg	officer: Chief Executive Officer	ONE HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Matthew J Osberg	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Vincent D Carson	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Timothy F Meeker	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Thurman K Case	director	C/O CIRRUS LOGIC INC, 800 W. 6TH STREET, AUSTIN TX 78701
Beryl Raff	director	5555 DARROW RD, HUDSON OH 44236
Darren G Woody	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Krista Berry	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
William Susetka	director	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912