What is Macrogenics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Macrogenics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Macrogenics (Macrogenics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9704 Medical Center Drive, Rockville, MD, USA, 20850
Macrogenics Inc is a biotechnology company focused on discovering and developing antibody-based therapeutics for the treatment of cancer. Its product includes MARGENZA, which is for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer. The company's strategy includes leveraging partnerships with a therapeutic focus geared toward developing a broad portfolio of pipeline candidates. The company also targets autoimmune disorders and infectious diseases. The company's intellectual property is characterized by its patent use to protect the composition of its product candidates and the technology used to create them.
Executives
| Ezio Bonvini |
officer: Sr VP, Research & CSO |
9640 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Biotech Target N V |
10 percent owner |
ARA HILL TOP BUILDING, UNIT A-5, PLETTERIJWEG OOST 1, CURACAO, WILLEMSTAD P8 000000 |
| Edward Hurwitz |
director |
|
| Jeffrey Stuart Peters |
officer: Acting General Counsel |
9704 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Margaret Liu |
director |
C/O SANGAMO, POINT RICHMOND TECH CNTR II, 501 CANAL BLVD, SUITE A-100, RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Meenu Chhabra |
director |
C/O VALLON PHARAMCEUTICALS, INC., 100 N 18TH, STREET, SUITE 300, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| James Karrels |
officer: SVP, CFO and Secretary |
9640 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| William K Heiden |
director |
C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Thomas Spitznagel |
officer: Sr VP, BPD & Manufacturing |
9704 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Biotech Ag Bb |
10 percent owner |
SCHWERTSTRASSE 6, SCHAFFHAUSEN V8 8200 |
| Federica F. O'brien |
director |
C/O TELA BIO, INC., 1 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 24, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Eric Blasius Risser |
officer: Sr VP & Chief Business Officer |
9640 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Kenneth Galbraith |
director |
OCEAN PARK RPO PO BOX 45025, 12851 16TH AVE, SURREY A1 V4A9L1 |
| Stephen L. Eck |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
12212 TECHNOLOGY BLVD., AUSTIN TX 78727 |
| Matthew K Fust |
director |
C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949 |
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