>
Switch to:

The Walt Disney Co Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1962. Start your Free Trial
1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Entertainment subindustry, The Walt Disney Co's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

The Walt Disney Co Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, The Walt Disney Co's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Walt Disney Co's Predictability Rank falls into.



The Walt Disney Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

The Walt Disney Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Walt Disney Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Walt Disney Co Business Description

The Walt Disney Co logo
Industry
Address
500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, CA, USA, 91521
Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney recently reorganized into four segments with one new segment: direct-to-consumer and international. The new segment includes the two announced OTT offerings, ESPN+ and the Disney SVOD service. The plan also combines two segments, parks and resorts and consumer products, into one. The media networks group contains the U.S. cable channels and ABC. The studio segment holds the movie production assets.
Executives
Woodford Brent officer: EVP, Control, Fin Plan & Tax 1441 GARDINER LANE LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Desouza Francis A director 350 ELLIS STREET MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Rice Derica W director LILLY CORPORATE CENTER INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Catz Safra director C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT CORPORATION 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200 RENO NV 89511
Arnold Susan E director THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY 1 PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA CINCINNATI OH 45202
Lagomasino Maria Elena director 345 PARK AVENUE 5TH FL NEW YORK NY 10154
Parker Mark G director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: PARKER MARK G a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Barra Mary T director 300 RENAISSANCE CENTER M/C: 482-C25-A36 DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Froman Michael B. G. director 2000 PURCHASE STREET PURCHASE NY 10577
Chapek Robert A officer: Chief Executive Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521
Braverman Alan N officer: Sr EVP, General Counsel & Secy 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA ST BURBANK CA 91521-1030
Iger Robert A director, officer: Chairman and CEO C/O WALT DISNEY CO 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521-1062
Mccarthy Christine M officer: SEVP-Chief Financial Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521-0964
Parker Mary Jayne officer: SEVP and Chief HR Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521-0966
Mucha Zenia B. officer: SEVP & Chief Comms Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521

The Walt Disney Co Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)