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LendingClub Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Credit Services subindustry, LendingClub's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

LendingClub Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, LendingClub's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where LendingClub's Predictability Rank falls into.



LendingClub Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

LendingClub Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of LendingClub's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


LendingClub Business Description

LendingClub logo
Industry
Financial Services » Credit Services NAICS : 525990 SIC : 6153
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
595 Market Street, Suite 200, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105
LendingClub Corp is a company engaged in operating an online lending marketplace platform that connects borrowers and investors for the provision of the loan facility. It offers investors access to an asset class that has generally been closed to many investors and only available on a limited basis to institutional investors. The company through the platform offer loan products such as personal, education and patient finance, small business and auto to interested investors. It generates a majority of the revenue from the transaction fees received from the platform's role in accepting and decisioning applications on behalf of the bank partners to enable loan originations.
Executives
Kay Valerie officer: Chief Capital Officer C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION 71 STEVENSON ST, SUITE 1000 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Casey Thomas W officer: Chief Financial Officer 1201 THIRD AVE SEATTLE WA 98101
Koohestani Bahman officer: Chief Technology Officer 500 W. MADISON STREET #1000 CHICAGO IL 60661
Stack Fergal officer: SVP, Corporate Controller C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION 71 STEVENSON ST., SUITE 300 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Pace Brandon officer: General Counsel and Secretary C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION 595 MARKET ST, SUITE 200 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Sanborn Scott officer: CEO C/O REDENVELOPE, INC. 149 NEW MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Bogan Timothy officer: Chief Risk Officer C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION 71 STEVENSON ST, SUITE 300 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Armstrong Annie officer: Chief Risk Officer C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION 595 MARKET ST. #200 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Momen Ronnie officer: Chief Lending Officer C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Denman Kenneth D director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: DENMAN KENNETH D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Zeisser Michael P director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ZEISSER MICHAEL P a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Williams Simon director C/O THE STUDENT LOAN CORPORATION 750 WASHINGTON BLVD., 9TH FLOOR STAMFORD CT 06901
Ciporin Daniel T director C/O VISTAPRINT USA, INC. 100 HAYDEN AVE LEXINGTON MA 02421
Mayopoulos Timothy J director C/O FANNIE MAE 1100 15TH STREET, NW WASHINGTON DC 20005
Morris John C. director C/O VISA INC. P.O. BOX 8999 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94128-8999

LendingClub Headlines

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