Starco Brands (Starco Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Starco Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Starco Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Starco Brands (Starco Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Starco Brands Inc (OTCPK:STCB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

250 26th Street, Suite 200, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90402

Website

https://www.starcobrands.com

Starco Brands Inc is engaged in the direct response marketing of consumer products. The company involves marketing, distributing, & developing consumer products to be sold through retail. It mainly selects products invented by others for use in a direct response marketing program and also develops its own products for sale as well. The company retails various products in the following categories: household, DIY/hardware, automotive, food products, personal care, suncare, spirits & beverage. It has two segments, Starco Brands. & Skylar. The Starco Brands segments generate the majority of revenue through the development and sales of consumer goods products.

Executives

Ah Parallel Fund Iv-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
A16z Seed-iii, Llc	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ah Equity Partners Iv, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ah Equity Partners Iii, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andreessen Horowitz Fund Iii-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andreessen Horowitz Fund Iii-b, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andreessen Horowitz Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andreessen Horowitz Fund Iii-q, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Gv 2016 Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gv 2016 Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW MA 94043
2016, L.p. Gv	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Alphabet Inc.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Ah Parallel Fund Iv-q, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ah Parallel Fund Iv-b, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ah Equity Partners Iv (parallel), L.l.c.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025