Pros Holdings (Pros Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Pros Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pros Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pros Holdings (Pros Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Pros Holdings Inc (NYSE:PRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PH2:Germany

Address

3200 Kirby Drive, Suite 600, Houston, TX, USA, 77098

Website

https://www.pros.com

Pros Holdings Inc. is a provider of cloud-based revenue and profit realization software solutions to business-to-business and business-to-consumer companies. Its solutions assist customers in growing revenue, modernizing business processes, and supporting profitability by leveraging prescriptive analytics and data science-based decision-making technology. The company's solutions enable buyers to move fluidly across its customers' direct sales, partner, online, mobile, and emerging channels with personalized experiences. The firm generates revenue in the United States, Europe, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Middle East regions.

Executives

Andres Reiner	officer: Senior VP Pricing Solutions	3100 MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Stefan B Schulz	officer: EVP and CFO	9625 W 76TH STREET, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Cynthia Johnson	director	3200 KIRBY DR., SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77098
Scott William Cook	officer: Sr.VP,Chief Accounting Officer	3100 MAIN ST., SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Leland Jourdan	director	3200 KIRBY DR., SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77098
Greg Petersen	director	3100 MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Timothy V Williams	director	3100 MAIN STREET, STE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Leslie J Rechan	director	2207 BRIDGEPOINTE PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Roberto D Reiner	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	3100 MAIN ST., SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Allessio John P. C.	officer: EVP, Chief Customer Officer	3100 MAIN ST., SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Catherine A Lesjak	director	GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, ONE FINANCIAL CENTER, SUITE 3700, BOSTON MA 02111
Raja Hammoud	director	3100 MAIN ST., SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Penny Herscher	director	1001 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Carlos Dominguez	director	C/O MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS, INC., 79 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Ronald F Woestemeyer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: EVP, Strategic Bus. Planning	3100 MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002