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RBLX (Roblox) Predictability Rank


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What is Roblox Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Roblox Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Roblox Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Roblox's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Roblox Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3150 South Delaware Street, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94403
Roblox operates a free-to-play online video game platform with about 85 million daily active users. This platform has spawned a virtual universe and a Roblox economy based on the Robux currency. The platform houses millions of games from a wide range of creators spanning from young gamers themselves to professional development studios. Roblox offers creators the tools, publishing abilities, and platform for their games, enabling anyone to create a game. Creators earn money when gamers make optional in-game purchases within their games and by offering space for real-world advertising, and Roblox earns revenue primarily by taking a cut of these earnings.
Executives
Mark Reinstra officer: Gen. Counsel & Secretary 970 PARK PLACE, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Manuel Bronstein officer: Chief Product Officer 970 PARK PLACE, SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Anthony P Lee director 970 PARK PLACE, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Amy Marie Rawlings officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O ZYNGA INC., 699 8TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Michael Guthrie officer: Chief Financial Officer TRUECAR, INC., 120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
David Baszucki director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO 970 PARK PLACE, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Gregory Baszucki director 970 PARK PLACE, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Christopher Carvalho director 970 PARK PLACE, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Daniel Sturman officer: Chief Technology Officer 970 PARK PLACE, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Andrea L Wong director 12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Han Kim 10 percent owner 2882 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Barbara Messing officer: CMKtg & People Exper Officer C/O XO GROUP INC., 195 BROADWAY, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10007
Jason Kilar director 208 S. AKARD ST, DALLAS TX 75202
Craig Donato officer: Chief Business Officer 970 PARK PLACE, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Altos Management Partners Iv Lr Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 2882 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025