Skillz (NYSE:SKLZ) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Skillz Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Skillz Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Skillz's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Skillz (NYSE:SKLZ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Skillz Inc (NYSE:SKLZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SKLZ:Mexico

Address

P.O. Box 445, San francisco, CA, USA, 94104

Website

https://www.skillz.com

Skillz Inc is a mobile game development company. Its platform helps developers build multi-million dollar franchises by enabling social competition in their games.

Executives

Seth Schorr	director	PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Jason Roswig	officer: President & CFO	PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Henry M. Hoffman	director	PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Shari Glazer	director	PO BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Doris Fritz-bianchi	officer: Head of People	SKILLZ INC C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Vatsal Bhardwaj	officer: Chief Product Officer	SKILLZ INC C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Stanley Mbugua	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	SKILLZ INC, PO BOX 455, SAN FRAN CA 94104
Ian J Lee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SKILLZ INC., P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104-0445
Christopher S Gaffney	director	C/O GREAT HILL PARTNERS, L.P., 200 CLARENDON STREET, 29TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Jerome Leon Bruckheimer	director	PHILPOTT MEEKS, 10030 VENTURA BOULEVARD, SUITE 380, ENCINO CA 91436
Scott D Henry	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Kent Wakeford	director	SKILLZ INC., C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104-0445
Vandana Mehta-krantz	director	SKILLZ INC., C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104-0445
Miriam Aguirre	officer: Chief Technology Officer	SKILLZ INC., C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104-0445
Favian Garcia	officer: Controller	SKILLZ INC., C/O CHARLOTTE EDELMAN, P.O. BOX 445, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104-0445