US Foods Holding (US Foods Holding) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is US Foods Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

US Foods Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

US Foods Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of US Foods Holding's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

US Foods Holding (US Foods Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » US Foods Holding Corp (NYSE:USFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UFH:Germany

Address

9399 West Higgins Road, Suite 100, Rosemont, IL, USA, 60018

Website

https://www.usfoods.com

us Foods is the second-largest U.S. food service distributor behind Sysco, holding 11% market share of the highly fragmented food service distribution industry. us Foods distributes more than 400,000 food and nonfood products to the healthcare and hospitality industries (collectively 22% of 2021 sales), restaurants (61%), and education, government facilities, and grocers (17%). In addition to its delivery business, the firm has 80 cash-and- carry stores under the Chef'Store banner. After Sysco's attempt to purchase us Foods failed to gain federal approval in 2015, us Foods entered the public market via an initial public offering.

Executives

Scott D. Ferguson	director	250 WEST 55TH STREET, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Poe David L Jr	officer: EVP, Chief Merchant	9399 W. HIGGINS RD., SUITE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
Martha Ha	officer: EVP, General Counsel	9399 W. HIGGINS RD., SUITE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
James D Sturgell	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	9399 W. HIGGINS RD., SUITE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
Randy J Taylor	officer: EVP, Field Operations	9399 W. HIGGINS RD., SUITE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
Steven Guberman	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP., 9399 W. HIGGINS RD., STE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
Andrew E. Iacobucci	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP., 9399 W. HIGGINS RD., ROSEMONT IL 60018
Kkr Group Co. Inc.	10 percent owner	30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr Fresh Holdings L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr Group Partnership L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Sunil Gupta	director	C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP., 9399 W HIGGINS RD, SUITE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
Jay Kvasnicka	officer: See Remarks	C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP., 9399 W. HIGGINS RD., STE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
David E Flitman	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NALCO COMPANY, 1601 WEST DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Works James David Jr	officer: EVP & CHRO	4001 RODNEY PARHAM RD, LITTLE ROCK AR 72212
Dirk J. Locascio	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP., 9399 W. HIGGINS RD., ROSEMONT IL 60018