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Japan TobaccoJAPAF 87 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.43% as of Jun. 2026, which is 23% below its 10-year median of 8.36. GuruFocus rates JAPAF with a GF Score™ of 87/100 and a GF Value™ of $33.17 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 33 Tobacco Products companies, Japan Tobacco ranks worse than 66.67% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Japan Tobacco's forward rate of return for was 6.43%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
JAPAF'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 4.69 Med: 8.36 Max: 14.69
Current: 5.88
During the past 13 years, Japan Tobacco's highest Forward Rate of Return was 14.69. The lowest was 4.69. And the median was 8.36.
JAPAF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 66.67% of 33
companies
in the Tobacco Products industry
Industry Median: 9.08
vs JAPAF: 5.88
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Japan Tobacco (OTCPK:JAPAF) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Japan Tobacco Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Japan Tobacco Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Japan Tobacco Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
JAPAF vs PM, MO, TPB: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Tobacco subindustry, Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Japan Tobacco Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Tobacco Products Industry
For the Tobacco Products industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Japan Tobacco Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2026 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
1.88914286
/
37.5
+
-0.0248
=
2.56 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 6.43% mean?
Japan Tobacco (JAPAF) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 6.43% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Japan Tobacco and its competitors. This is 23% below median its historical median of 8.36. Over the past decade, Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 4.69 to 14.69. According to the industry distribution chart, Japan Tobacco ranks #22 out of 33 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, placing it in the top 66.7%.
Is Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Japan Tobacco's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 6.43% is 23% below median its 10-year median of 8.36. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 4.69 to a high of 14.69. The Tobacco Products industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.08. Japan Tobacco's value of 6.43% is 29.2% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Japan Tobacco ranks #22 out of 33 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Japan Tobacco has a GF Score™ of 87/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Japan Tobacco's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to PM and MO?
According to the Tobacco Products industry distribution chart, Japan Tobacco ranks #22 out of 33 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Japan Tobacco in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.08. Japan Tobacco's value of 6.43% is 29.2% below this benchmark. Historically, Japan Tobacco's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 4.69 to 14.69 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 8.36 vs. the industry median of 9.08, Japan Tobacco has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Tobacco Products company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Tobacco Products companies is 9.08, based on 33 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Japan Tobacco's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 6.43% is 29.2% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Japan Tobacco and its competitors. For the Tobacco Products industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.08 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Japan Tobacco's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.43%, which is 23% below median its own 10-year median of 8.36. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Japan Tobacco stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Japan Tobacco (JAPAF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $33.17, compared to a current price of $43.32 — trading 30.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.43%, which is 23% below median its 10-year median of 8.36 and 29.2% below the Tobacco Products industry median of 9.08. Japan Tobacco's overall GF Score™ is 87/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Japan Tobacco (JAPAF), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.43% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Japan Tobacco (JAPAF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Japan Tobacco stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $43.32 is trading 30.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $33.17.
GuruFocus considers Japan Tobacco to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for JAPAF:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 6.43% (23% below median its 10-year median of 8.36)
GF Value™: $33.17 vs. price of $43.32 (30.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 29.2% below the Tobacco Products median (#22 of 33)
No single metric tells the full story. See the JAPAF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Japan Tobacco primarily sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, organized in three clusters consisting of Asia (which includes its home market and countries in Asia Pacific), Western Europe, and EMA (which includes Eastern Europe, the Middle East North Africa, Turkey, Americas, and duty-free). Its leading cigarette brands include Winston (non-US), Camel (non-US), Mevius, and LD. Its reduced-risk brands include Logic in vaping, Ploom in heated tobacco, and Nordic Spirit in nicotine pouches, though these generates less than 5% of tobacco sales.
87GF Score
Get the complete analysis for JAPAF
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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