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Provident Financial ServicesPFS +0.52%58 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.44% as of Jun. 2026, which is 0% above its 10-year median of 11.43. GuruFocus rates PFS with a GF Score™ of 58/100 and a GF Value™ of $20.12 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,418 Banks companies, Provident Financial Services ranks worse than 70.31% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Provident Financial Services's forward rate of return for was 11.44%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Provident Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
PFS'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 9.33 Med: 11.43 Max: 22.29
Current: 10.86
During the past 13 years, Provident Financial Services's highest Forward Rate of Return was 22.29. The lowest was 9.33. And the median was 11.43.
PFS's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 70.31% of 1418
companies
in the Banks industry
Industry Median: 15.345
vs PFS: 10.86
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Provident Financial Services Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Provident Financial Services Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Provident Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Provident Financial Services Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
PFS vs SBCF, FBK, BANC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Provident Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Provident Financial Services Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Provident Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Provident Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Provident Financial Services Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.44% mean?
Provident Financial Services (PFS) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.44% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Provident Financial Services and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 11.43. Over the past decade, Provident Financial Services' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 9.33 to 22.29. According to the industry distribution chart, Provident Financial Services ranks #997 out of 1418 companies in the Banks industry, placing it in the top 70.3%.
Is Provident Financial Services' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Provident Financial Services' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.44% is near median its 10-year median of 11.43. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 9.33 to a high of 22.29. The Banks industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.35. Provident Financial Services' value of 11.44% is 25.4% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Provident Financial Services ranks #997 out of 1418 companies in the Banks industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Provident Financial Services has a GF Score™ of 58/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Provident Financial Services' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to SBCF and FBK?
According to the Banks industry distribution chart, Provident Financial Services ranks #997 out of 1418 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Provident Financial Services in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.35. Provident Financial Services' value of 11.44% is 25.4% below this benchmark. Historically, Provident Financial Services' own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 9.33 to 22.29 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 11.43 vs. the industry median of 15.35, Provident Financial Services has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Banks company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Banks companies is 15.35, based on 1,418 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Provident Financial Services's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.44% is 25.4% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Provident Financial Services and its competitors. For the Banks industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.35 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Provident Financial Services's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.44%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 11.43. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Provident Financial Services stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Provident Financial Services (PFS) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $20.12, compared to a current price of $25.01 — trading 24.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.44%, which is near median its 10-year median of 11.43 and 25.4% below the Banks industry median of 15.35. Provident Financial Services' overall GF Score™ is 58/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Provident Financial Services (PFS), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.44% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Provident Financial Services (PFS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Provident Financial Services stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $25.01 is trading 24.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of $20.12.
GuruFocus considers Provident Financial Services to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for PFS:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 11.44% (near median its 10-year median of 11.43)
GF Value™: $20.12 vs. price of $25.01 (24.3% above fair value)
Industry Position: 25.4% below the Banks median (#997 of 1418)
No single metric tells the full story. See the PFS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Provident Financial Services Inc is the holding company for The Provident Bank, a community-oriented bank. The company's operations are solely in the financial services industry and include providing traditional banking and other financial services to its customers. The company operates in the geographical regions of northern and central New Jersey, Queens and Nassau Counties in New York and eastern Pennsylvania. The company has a single reporting segment for financial reporting purposes. The majority of the revenue-generating activities that are components of non-interest income. These revenue streams can generally be classified into three broad categories: wealth management revenue, insurance agency income, and banking service charges and other fees.
58GF Score
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Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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