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FedExXSWX:FDX +0.12%80 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42% as of May. 2026, which is 21% below its 10-year median of 9.40. GuruFocus rates XSWX:FDX with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF195.68. The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 754 Transportation companies, FedEx ranks worse than 58.36% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. FedEx's forward rate of return for was 7.42%.
The historical rank and industry rank for FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:FDX'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.33 Med: 9.4 Max: 24.77
Current: 7.64
During the past 13 years, FedEx's highest Forward Rate of Return was 24.77. The lowest was 1.33. And the median was 9.40.
XSWX:FDX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 58.36% of 754
companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 10.85
vs XSWX:FDX: 7.64
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
FedEx (XSWX:FDX) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
FedEx Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
FedEx Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
XSWX:FDX vs UPS, JBHT, FDXF: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
FedEx Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
FedEx Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% mean?
FedEx (XSWX:FDX) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% as of May. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on FedEx and its competitors. This is 21% below median its historical median of 9.40. Over the past decade, FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 1.33 to 24.77. According to the industry distribution chart, FedEx ranks #440 out of 754 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 58.4%.
Is FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
FedEx's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% is 21% below median its 10-year median of 9.40. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.33 to a high of 24.77. The Transportation industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.85. FedEx's value of 7.42% is 31.6% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, FedEx ranks #440 out of 754 companies in the Transportation industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, FedEx has a GF Score™ of 80/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does FedEx's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to UPS and JBHT?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, FedEx ranks #440 out of 754 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places FedEx in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.85. FedEx's value of 7.42% is 31.6% below this benchmark. Historically, FedEx's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 1.33 to 24.77 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 9.40 vs. the industry median of 10.85, FedEx has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Transportation company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Transportation companies is 10.85, based on 754 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. FedEx's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% is 31.6% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on FedEx and its competitors. For the Transportation industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.85 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. FedEx's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42%, which is 21% below median its own 10-year median of 9.40. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is FedEx stock overvalued right now?
FedEx (XSWX:FDX) has a current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42%. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF195.68, compared to a current price of CHF258.80 — trading 32.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42%, which is 21% below median its 10-year median of 9.40 and 31.6% below the Transportation industry median of 10.85. FedEx's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For FedEx (XSWX:FDX), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42% as of May. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is FedEx (XSWX:FDX) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, FedEx stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF258.80 is trading 32.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF195.68.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:FDX:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 7.42% (21% below median its 10-year median of 9.40)
GF Value™: CHF195.68 vs. price of CHF258.80 (32.3% above fair value)
Industry Position: 31.6% below the Transportation median (#440 of 754)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:FDX stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
FedEx pioneered overnight delivery in 1973 and remains the world's largest express package provider. Following the June 2026 spinoff of FedEx Freight (less-than-truckload shipping), the firm's Federal Express segment—which houses the core package delivery operations—makes up more than 95% of total revenue (previously 87%). The remainder stems from other services, including FedEx Office, which provides document production/shipping, and FedEx Logistics, which provides global forwarding. FedEx acquired Dutch parcel delivery firm TNT Express in 2016, boosting its presence across Europe. TNT was previously the fourth-largest global parcel delivery provider.
80GF Score
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Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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