DLTR (Dollar Tree) Risk Assessment

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

DLTR Dollar Tree Inc DLTR
77 GF Score
Price $122.15
GF Value $146.93
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Dollar Tree Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of Dollar Tree is: Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock.

Dollar Tree  (NAS:DLTR) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

Dollar Tree Risk Assessment Related Terms

DLTR vs DG, BJ, PSMT: Risk Assessment Comparison

For the Discount Stores subindustry, Dollar Tree's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Dollar Tree Risk Assessment vs Retail - Defensive Industry

For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Dollar Tree's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Dollar Tree's Risk Assessment falls into.


DLTR
77GF Score
Dollar Tree Inc DLTR
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Is Dollar Tree (DLTR) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Dollar Tree stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $122.15 is trading 16.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $146.93. GuruFocus considers Dollar Tree to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for DLTR:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: $146.93 vs. price of $122.15 (16.9% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 77/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the DLTR stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Dollar Tree Business Description

Address 500 Volvo Parkway, Chesapeake, VA, USA, 23320
Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree operates almost 9,000 small-box discount stores across the United States and Canada, offering roughly 85% of its merchandise under $2. The chain targets value-conscious suburban and urban shoppers with a mix of consumables (49% of sales), variety (45%), and seasonal goods (6%). In fiscal 2025, Dollar Tree generated over $19 billion in sales, through its multi-price strategy, higher-margin discretionary assortments, and private-label products that account for nearly one-third of sales.
77GF Score

Get the complete analysis for DLTR

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$122.15
Price
$146.93
GF Value